Emboldened North Korea awaits second Trump administration

In his first message aimed at Washington since the U.S. presidential election, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed his unwavering determination to hold onto nuclear weapons, U.S. analysts say.
At a conference with army officials last Friday, Kim vowed to bolster his country’s nuclear capabilities “without limit,” while condemning Washington for its nuclear deterrence strategies with Seoul.
“The U.S., Japan and South Korea will never get away from the responsibility as the culprits of destroying the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and the region,” Kim said, according to the Korean Central News Agency. “The most important and critical task for our armed forces is preparations for a war.”
Nuclear rhetoric
Evans Revere, former acting U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, interpreted Kim’s remarks, which were made 10 days after the election, as a message directed to President-elect Donald Trump, whom he met with face-to-face three times from 2018 to 2019.
“Kim Jong Un is making clear to President-elect Trump that everything has changed since their previous meetings,” Revere told VOA Korean via email Tuesday. “Pyongyang has become a de facto nuclear weapons state and will not give up its treasured sword, as it once called its nuclear deterrent.”
Nuclear talks between then-President Trump and North Korea’s supreme leader collapsed during their Hanoi summit in February 2019, after Trump rejected the lifting of sanctions in exchange for Kim’s offer to dismantle one major nuclear facility. Since then, Pyongyang has not slowed the ramp-up of its nuclear capabilities.
In one of its latest moves, just five days before the U.S. election, the regime tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile called Hwasong-19 that could potentially reach most of the United States mainland.
“Having already developed a credible deterrent, complete with sophisticated medium- and long-range delivery systems, North Korea wants to be accepted, or at least acknowledged, as a nuclear power,” Revere said.
Kim is trying to remind the incoming U.S. president that “the door to denuclearization has now been firmly closed and he will be dealing with a DPRK that intends to keep its nuclear arsenal,” said Revere.
DPRK stands for Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.
Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. special envoy for six-party denuclearization talks with North Korea, said Kim would still want to meet with Trump, but the terms this time would be drastically different.
“I think Kim Jong Un is open to a dialogue with President-elect Trump’s administration, once it is in place,” DeTrani told VOA Korean via email Tuesday.
DeTrani said Kim would come to another potential summit with Trump “from a position of strength,” given his alliance and defense treaty with Russia. Russia and North Korea have committed to coming to the aid of the other if attacked.
Other experts cautioned, however, against reading too deeply into what Kim said.
New alliance
Sydney Seiler, former national intelligence officer for North Korea on the U.S. National Intelligence Council, said that Kim’s latest remarks provide little insight into how Kim may handle the incoming Trump administration.
“Kim Jong Un is exploring the benefits available in being an active member of the axis of upheaval: states such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran who seek to overturn the existing rules-based order and justify using force to achieve their objectives,” Seiler told VOA Korean via email Tuesday.
Seiler said that Kim has begun to enjoy benefits in his cooperation with Russia — cash, food and fuel aid, assistance with weapons of mass destruction, and conventional capabilities, and diplomatic recognition and acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear status.
“Why would he reach out to Donald Trump when he has friends like Vladimir Putin?” he asked.
In June, Kim and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, which calls for Russia and North Korea to immediately assist each other militarily if either of them is attacked by a third country. Russia and North Korea respectively ratified the treaty into law earlier this month.
Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction, told VOA Korean via email Tuesday that Kim does not need Trump for assistance and sanctions relief as he used to because of his new alliance with Putin.
Samore said another Trump-Kim meeting won’t be very high on Trump’s agenda.
“Trump’s top foreign policy issues will be ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and imposing tariffs on China,” he said. “In contrast, the Korean situation is pretty stable and quiet, and nobody thinks another Trump-Kim summit will produce big results.”
VOA Korean Service asked the U.S. State Department about Kim’s latest message toward the U.S. but did not receive a reply by the time this article was published.
In a response to an inquiry made by VOA Korean earlier this month, the State Department spokesperson reiterated the U.S. commitment to protect South Korea from any North Korean nuclear attack.
“President Biden reaffirmed the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to the ROK using the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities, and that any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the ROK will be met with a swift, overwhelming and decisive response,” the spokesperson said.